🎯 Pollster Ratings Guide
Understanding poll quality and reliability ratings from Silver Bulletin
Why Pollster Ratings Matter
Not all polls are created equal. Some pollsters have proven track records of accuracy, while others may have methodological issues or partisan biases. The pollster ratings you see on our National Polls page come from Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver), which evaluates pollsters based on historical accuracy, methodology, and transparency.
These ratings help you understand which polls to trust more when tracking public opinion on elections, approval ratings, and policy issues.
Understanding the Ratings
The highest quality pollsters with exceptional track records
Key Characteristics:
- Consistently accurate predictions
- Transparent methodology
- Large sample sizes
- Rigorous quality controls
- Minimal partisan bias
Excellent pollsters with strong accuracy and reliability
Key Characteristics:
- Very accurate historical performance
- Clear methodology
- Representative samples
- Strong quality standards
High-quality pollsters with good track records
Key Characteristics:
- Good historical accuracy
- Documented methodology
- Reasonable sample sizes
- Generally unbiased
Above-average pollsters with solid performance
Key Characteristics:
- Above-average accuracy
- Acceptable methodology
- Adequate sample sizes
- Minor methodology concerns
Good pollsters with acceptable accuracy
Key Characteristics:
- Generally accurate
- Basic methodology disclosed
- Standard sample sizes
- Some minor issues
Acceptable pollsters with some concerns
Key Characteristics:
- Mixed accuracy record
- Limited methodology details
- Some sample quality issues
- Occasional partisan lean
Pollsters with significant concerns or limited track records
Key Characteristics:
- Below-average accuracy
- Methodology concerns
- Small or unrepresentative samples
- Partisan lean detected
- Limited historical data
What Goes Into a Rating?
Historical Accuracy
How close were their polls to actual election results in the past?
Methodology
Do they use sound sampling techniques and disclose their methods?
Sample Size
Larger samples (1,000+) generally provide more reliable results
Partisan Bias
Does the pollster show consistent lean toward one party?
Recency
More recent polls are generally more accurate as election day approaches
Contact Method
Live phone, automated calls, online panels each have different strengths
How to Use These Ratings
Check Multiple Polls
Don't rely on a single poll. Look at the average or trend across multiple high-quality polls to get a better picture.
Prioritize A-Rated Pollsters
When polls disagree, give more weight to those from A+ to B+ rated pollsters with proven track records.
Consider the Sample
Check who was polled: "Registered Voters" (RV), "Likely Voters" (LV), or "Adults" (A). LV polls are typically most predictive of election outcomes.
Watch the Trend
Individual polls have margins of error (usually ±3-4%). Focus on trends over time rather than small shifts in single polls.
About Silver Bulletin Ratings
The pollster ratings displayed on Candifact come from Silver Bulletin's Pollster Ratings, developed by Nate Silver and his team. These ratings are based on:
- Analysis of thousands of polls from past elections
- Comparison of poll results to actual election outcomes
- Evaluation of methodology and transparency
- Assessment of house effects and partisan lean
Silver Bulletin updates these ratings regularly as new data becomes available. Learn more at www.natesilver.net